Atmospheric turbidity forecasting using side-by-side ANFIS

Julien Nou (1) , Rémi Chauvin (1) , Adama Traoré (1) , Stéphane Thil (1) , Stéphane Grieu (1)

1 PROMES - Procédés, Matériaux et Energie Solaire

In a context of sustainable development, enthusiasm for CSP technologies is increasing. In addition, the CSPIMP (Concentrated Solar Power efficiency IMProvement) European project has been recently initiated to achieve a better competitiveness of the CSP plants. Its main objective is to develop a new procedure to improve the steam turbine start up cycles, maintenance activities and advanced plant control schemes. A challenge in the project is to forecast the solar resource with the aim of improving the management of CSP plants. A key parameter when trying to estimate or forecast solar radiation is atmospheric turbidity. Indeed, the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) under clear sky conditions can be expressed as a function of extraterrestrial irradiation, altitude and atmospheric turbidity. So, this paper focuses on forecasting atmospheric turbidity at different time horizons (up to 3 hours) using side-by-side Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS). First, a Multi-Resolution Analysis (MRA) based on the discrete wavelet transform allowed clear sky DNI values to be extracted from the NREL database. In addition, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has been considered in order to develop the forecasting model using uncorrelated input variables and reduce its complexity (and, as a consequence, computation time). Finally, the results we obtained about atmospheric turbidity forecasting are satisfactory and validate the proposed approach.

Mots clés: Atmospheric turbidity forecasting; adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system; principal component analysis; wavelet-based multi-resolution analysis.

Domaines: Automatique / Robotique; Traitement du signal et de l'image [eess.SP]

Julien Nou, Rémi Chauvin, Adama Traoré, Stéphane Thil, Stéphane Grieu. Atmospheric turbidity forecasting using side-by-side ANFIS. Energy Procedia, 2013, Proceedings of the SolarPACES 2013 International Conference, 49, pp.2387-2397. ⟨10.1016/j.egypro.2014.03.253⟩. ⟨hal-01292671⟩