Escaping the perfect storm of simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries
Résumé
Climate change can alter conditions that sustain food production and availability, with cascading consequences for human food security and [coutries'?] economies. Yet, food production sectors are rarely examined together, which may lead to misleading policy recommendations depending on how gains or losses in one sector are balanced by losses or gains in another. Here, we evaluate global vulnerability to climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries. Under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5), ~90% of the world's human population-mostly living in the most sensitive and least adaptive countries-are projected to be exposed to productivity losses in both sectors, while less than 3% are projected to live in regions experiencing simultaneous productivity GAINS? by 2100. Most countries-including the most vulnerable and many of the largest CO 2 producers-would experience concomitant greater wins or lower losses on both food production sectors if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced (RCP2.6). Reducing societies' vulnerability to future climate impacts requires prompt mitigation actions led by major CO 2 emitters which should be coupled with strategic adaptation [programs?] within and across sectors in regions where negative impacts seem inevitable.
Domaines
Sciences de l'environnement
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