Improving marine disease surveillance through sea temperature monitoring, outlooks and projections

Jeffrey Maynard (1, 2, 3) , Ruben van Hooidonk (4, 5) , C Drew Harvell (1) , C. Mark Eakin (6) , Gang Liu (6) , Bette L. Willis (7, 8) , Gareth J. Williams (9) , Maya L. Groner (10) , Andrew Dobson (11) , Scott F. Heron (12, 13) , Robert Glenn (14) , Kathleen Reardon (15) , Jeffrey D. Shields (16)

1 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology [Ithaca]
2 LabEX CORAIL - Laboratoire d'Excellence CORAIL
3 CRIOBE - Centre de recherches insulaires et observatoire de l'environnement
4 CIMAS - Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies
5 AOML - NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
6 STAR - NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research
7 College of Marine and Environmental Sciences [Cairns]
8 CoralCoE - ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies
9 School of Ocean Sciences
10 Centre for Veterinary Epidemiological Research
11 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology [Princeton]
12 Coral Reef Watch
13 Marine Geophysical Laboratory
14 Dept. of Marine Fisheries and Resources, Marine Biology Division
15 DMR - Department of Marine Resources
16 VIMS - Virginia Institute of Marine Science

To forecast marine disease outbreaks as oceans warm requires new environmental surveillance tools. We describe an iterative process for developing these tools that combines research, development and deployment for suitable systems. The first step is to identify candidate host–pathogen systems. The 24 candidate systems we identified include sponges, corals, oysters, crustaceans, sea stars, fishes and sea grasses (among others). To illustrate the other steps, we present a case study of epizootic shell disease (ESD) in the American lobster. Increasing prevalence of ESD is a contributing factor to lobster fishery collapse in southern New England (SNE), raising concerns that disease prevalence will increase in the northern Gulf of Maine under climate change. The lowest maximum bottom temperature associated with ESD prevalence in SNE is 128C. Our seasonal outlook for 2015 and long-term projections show bottom temperatures greater than or equal to 128C may occur in this and coming years in the coastal bays of Maine. The tools presented will allow managers to target efforts to monitor the effects of ESD on fishery sustainability and will be iteratively refined. The approach and case example highlight that temperature-based surveillance tools can inform research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats.

Mots clés: climate change; Homarus americanus; epizootic shell disease; marine disease; predictive tools; resource management

Domaines: Ecologie, Environnement

Jeffrey Maynard, Ruben van Hooidonk, C Drew Harvell, C. Mark Eakin, Gang Liu, et al.. Improving marine disease surveillance through sea temperature monitoring, outlooks and projections. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences (1934–1990), 2016, 371 (1689), ⟨10.1098/rstb.2015.0208⟩. ⟨hal-01282834⟩