The spatial reproduction number in a cellular automaton model for vector-borne diseases applied to the transmission of Chagas disease

Baki Cissé (1, 2) , Samira El Yacoubi (2, 1) , Sébastien Gourbière (2)

1 UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement
2 IMAGES-Espace DEV - Institut de Modélisation et d'Analyses en géo-environnement et santé - Espace Développement

This work aims at developing a general methodology to determine the spatial changes in the basic reproduction number for vector-borne diseases. This requires a spatially explicit modeling system which will be based on a cellular automata (CA) approach and applied to the Chagas disease for both homogeneous and heterogeneous landscapes. Using an extension of the so-called next-generation matrix, we obtained an expression for the basic reproduction number Formula that characterizes the spatial heterogeneity of the risk of emergence of an outbreak. The performed simulation with the built CA model shows the effect of local vector dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape for Chagas disease transmission.

Keywords: modeling; spatial dynamics; vector-borne disease; basic reproduction number; heterogeneity

Domains: Mathematics [math]; Dynamical Systems [math.DS]

Baki Cissé, Samira El Yacoubi, Sébastien Gourbière. The spatial reproduction number in a cellular automaton model for vector-borne diseases applied to the transmission of Chagas disease. SIMULATION, 2016, 92 (2), p. 141-152. ⟨10.1177/0037549715626520⟩. ⟨hal-01271476⟩