S. Andr-efou?, F. Muller-karger, J. Robinson, C. Kranenburg, D. Torres-pulliza et al., Global assessment of modern coral reef extent and diversity for regional science and management applications: a view from space, Proceedings of the 10th International Coral Reef Symposium, pp.1732-1745, 2006.

A. Baker, Ecosystems: Reef corals bleach to survive change, Nature, vol.411, issue.6839, pp.765-766, 2001.
DOI : 10.1038/35081151

K. Casey, T. Brandon, P. Cornillon, R. Evans, V. Barale et al., The Past, Present, and Future of the AVHRR Pathfinder SST Program, 2010.
DOI : 10.1007/978-90-481-8681-5_16

S. Donner, Coping with Commitment: Projected Thermal Stress on Coral Reefs under Different Future Scenarios, PLoS ONE, vol.432, issue.6, 2009.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0005712.t003

S. Donner, An evaluation of the effect of recent temperature variability on the prediction of coral bleaching events, Ecological Applications, vol.21, issue.5, pp.1718-1730, 2011.
DOI : 10.1038/nature08316

S. Donner, W. Skirving, C. Little, M. Oppenheimer, and O. Hoegh-guldberg, Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change, Global Change Biology, vol.82, issue.12, pp.2251-2265, 2005.
DOI : 10.1007/s00338-003-0361-y

A. Douglas, Coral bleaching?how and why? Marine Pollution Bulletin, pp.385-392, 2003.
DOI : 10.1016/s0025-326x(03)00037-7

C. Eakin, J. Morgan, and S. Heron, Caribbean Corals in Crisis: Record Thermal Stress, Bleaching, and Mortality in 2005, PLoS ONE, vol.6, issue.12, p.13969, 2010.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0013969.s005

K. Frieler, M. Meinshausen, A. Golly, M. Mengel, K. Lebek et al., Limiting global warming to 2 & #xB0;C is unlikely to save most coral reefs, Nature Climate Change, vol.2, pp.1-6, 2012.

M. Gleeson and A. Strong, Applying MCSST to coral reef bleaching, Advances in Space Research, vol.16, issue.10, pp.151-154, 1995.
DOI : 10.1016/0273-1177(95)00396-V

S. Griffies, M. Harrison, R. Pacanowski, and A. Rosati, A Technical Guide to MOM4, 2004.

O. Hoegh-guldberg, Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs. Marine and Freshwater Research, pp.839-866, 1999.

O. Hoegh-guldberg, P. Mumby, and A. Hooten, Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification, Science, vol.318, issue.5857, pp.1737-1742, 2007.
DOI : 10.1126/science.1152509
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.335.7506

R. Hoeke, P. Jokiel, R. Buddemeier, and R. Brainard, Projected Changes to Growth and Mortality of Hawaiian Corals over the Next 100 Years, PLoS ONE, vol.92, issue.3, p.18038, 2011.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0018038.s003

R. Van-hooidonk and M. Huber, Quantifying the quality of coral bleaching predictions, Coral Reefs, vol.218, issue.3, pp.579-587, 2009.
DOI : 10.1007/s00338-009-0502-z

R. Van-hooidonk and M. Huber, Effects of modeled tropical sea surface temperature variability on coral reef bleaching predictions, Coral Reefs, vol.35, issue.1, pp.121-131, 2012.
DOI : 10.1007/s00338-011-0825-4

R. Van-hooidonk, J. Maynard, and S. Planes, Temporary refugia for coral reefs in a warming world, Nature Climate Change, vol.28, issue.5, pp.1-4, 2013.
DOI : 10.1038/nclimate1829

R. Van-hooidonk, J. Maynard, D. Manzello, and S. Planes, Opposite latitudinal gradients in projected ocean acidification and bleaching impacts on coral reefs, Global Change Biology, vol.161, issue.1, pp.103-112, 2014.
DOI : 10.1111/gcb.12394

T. Hughes, A. Baird, and D. Bellwood, Climate Change, Human Impacts, and the Resilience of Coral Reefs, Science, vol.301, issue.5635, pp.929-933, 2003.
DOI : 10.1126/science.1085046

M. Parry, O. Canziani, J. Palutikof, P. Van-der-linden, and C. Hanson, Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability In: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, p.976, 2007.

K. Jylh?-a, H. Tuomenvirta, K. Ruosteenoja, H. Niemi-hugaerts, K. Keisu et al., Observed and Projected Future Shifts of Climatic Zones in Europe and Their Use to Visualize Climate Change Information, Weather, Climate, and Society, pp.148-167, 2010.
DOI : 10.1175/2010WCAS1010.1

A. Kara, C. Barron, A. Wallcraft, T. Oguz, and K. Casey, Advantages of fine resolution SSTs for small ocean basins: Evaluation in the Black Sea, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol.25, issue.3, pp.1-15, 2008.
DOI : 10.1029/2007JC004569

K. Karnauskas and A. Cohen, Equatorial refuge amid tropical warming, Nature Climate Change, vol.2, pp.530-534, 2012.
DOI : 10.1175/2007JCLI2100.1

J. Kleypas and C. Eakin, Scientists' perceptions of threats to coral reefs: results of a survey of coral reef researchers, Bulletin of Marine Science, vol.80, pp.419-436, 2007.

R. Knutti, Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections, Nature Climate Change, vol.135, issue.4, pp.369-373, 2013.
DOI : 10.1038/nclimate1716

L. Kwiatkowski, P. Halloran, P. Mumby, and D. Stephenson, What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature? Climate Dynamics, pp.1483-1496, 2014.

A. Lauer, C. Zhang, O. Elison-timm, Y. Wang, and K. Hamilton, Downscaling of Climate Change in the Hawaii Region Using CMIP5 Results: On the Choice of the Forcing Fields*, Journal of Climate, vol.26, issue.24, pp.10006-10030, 2013.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00126.s1

M. Lemos and R. Rood, Climate projections and their impact on policy and practice, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, vol.17, issue.5, pp.670-682, 2010.
DOI : 10.1002/wcc.71
URL : http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78059/1/71_ftp.pdf

Y. Liu, S. Lee, B. Muhling, J. Lamkin, and D. Enfield, Significant reduction of the Loop Current in the 21st century and its impact on the Gulf of Mexico, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.29, issue.3, p.5039, 2012.
DOI : 10.1029/2001GL013990

Y. Liu, S. Lee, D. Enfield, B. Muhling, J. Lamkin et al., Potential impact of climate change on the Intra-Americas Sea: Part-1. A dynamic downscaling of the CMIP5 model projections, Journal of Marine Systems, vol.148, pp.56-69, 2015.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2015.01.007

C. Logan, J. Dunne, C. Eakin, and S. Donner, Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching, Global Change Biology, vol.19, issue.1, pp.125-139, 2014.
DOI : 10.1111/gcb.12390

D. Maraun, F. Wetterhall, and A. Ireson, Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user, Reviews of Geophysics, vol.12, issue.1???4, p.3003, 2010.
DOI : 10.1029/2009RG000314

E. Mcleod, R. Salm, A. Green, and J. Almany, Designing marine protected area networks to address the impacts of climate change, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, vol.11, issue.7, pp.362-370, 2009.
DOI : 10.1007/s00338-003-0361-y

R. Moss, J. Edmonds, and K. Hibbard, The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, vol.91, issue.7282, pp.747-756, 2010.
DOI : 10.1038/nature08823

L. Oey, T. Ezer, and H. Lee, Loop current, rings and related circulation in the Gulf of Mexico, Circulation in the Gulf of Mexico: Observations and Models (eds Sturges W, 2005.

N. Oreskes, D. Stainforth, and L. Smith, Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know?, Philosophy of Science, vol.77, issue.5, pp.1012-1028, 2010.
DOI : 10.1086/657428

H. Paeth, N. Hall, and M. Gaertner, Progress in regional downscaling of west African precipitation, Atmospheric Science Letters, vol.34, issue.Suppl. 1, pp.75-82, 2011.
DOI : 10.1002/asl.306
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00648904

S. Palumbi, MARINE RESERVES AND OCEAN NEIGHBORHOODS: The Spatial Scale of Marine Populations and Their Management, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, vol.29, issue.1, pp.31-68, 2004.
DOI : 10.1146/annurev.energy.29.062403.102254

G. Peters, R. Andrew, and T. Boden, The challenge to keep global warming below 2 ??C, Nature Climate Change, vol.3, issue.1, pp.4-6, 2012.
DOI : 10.1038/nclimate1576

K. Riahi, S. Rao, and V. Krey, RCP 8.5???A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions, Climatic Change, vol.1, issue.3, pp.33-57, 2011.
DOI : 10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y

R. Salm, T. Done, and E. Mcleod, Marine protected area planning in a changing climate , in coral reefs and climate change, Phinney JT, 2006.

D. Schr?-oter, M. Metzger, W. Cramer, and R. Leemans, Vulnerability assessment?analysing the human-environment system in the face of global environmental change, Environmental Science Section Bulletin, vol.2, pp.11-17, 2004.

C. Sheppard, Predicted recurrences of mass coral mortality in the Indian Ocean, Nature, vol.425, issue.6955, pp.294-297, 2003.
DOI : 10.1038/nature01987

C. Sheppard and R. Rioja-nieto, Sea surface temperature 1871???2099 in 38 cells in the Caribbean region, Marine Environmental Research, vol.60, issue.3, pp.389-396, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.marenvres.2004.12.006

W. Skirving, M. Heron, S. Heron, J. Phinney, O. Hoegh-guldberg et al., The hydrodynamics of a bleaching event: implications for management and monitoring. In: Coral Reefs and Climate Change: Science and Management, 2006.

N. Stern, The economics of climate change. The American Economic Review, pp.1-37, 2008.

C. Sun, M. Feng, R. Matear, M. Chamberlain, P. Craig et al., Marine Downscaling of a Future Climate Scenario for Australian Boundary Currents, Journal of Climate, vol.25, issue.8, pp.2947-2962, 2012.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00159.1

K. Taylor, R. Stouffer, and G. Meehl, An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.93, issue.4, pp.485-498, 2012.
DOI : 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

A. Trotman, R. Gordon, S. Hutchinson, and R. Singh, Policy responses to GEC impacts on food availability and affordability in the Caribbean community, Environmental Science & Policy, vol.12, issue.4, pp.529-541, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsci.2009.02.001

C. Wang, L. Zhang, S. Lee, L. Wu, and C. Mechoso, A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases, Nature Climate Change, vol.39, issue.3, pp.201-205, 2014.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00149.1