Projections of climate conditions that increase coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance and virulence

Abstract : Rising sea temperatures are likely to increase the frequency of disease outbreaks affecting reef-building corals through impacts on coral hosts and pathogens. We present and compare climate model projections of temperature conditions that will increase coral susceptibility to disease, pathogen abundance and pathogen virulence. Both moderate (RCP 4.5) and fossil fuel aggressive (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios are examined. We also compare projections for the onset of disease-conducive conditions and severe annual coral bleaching, and produce a disease risk summary that combines climate stress with stress caused by local human activities. There is great spatial variation in the projections, both among and within the major ocean basins, in conditions favouring disease development. Our results indicate that disease is as likely to cause coral mortality as bleaching in the coming decades. These projections identify priority locations to reduce stress caused by local human activities and test management interventions to reduce disease impacts.
Keywords : Climate Change Coral
Type de document :
Article dans une revue
Nature Climate Change, Nature Publishing Group, 2015, pp.ePUB. 〈10.1038/nclimate2625〉
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https://hal-univ-perp.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01162335
Contributeur : Olivier Savoyat <>
Soumis le : mercredi 10 juin 2015 - 11:13:47
Dernière modification le : jeudi 11 janvier 2018 - 06:23:12

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Jeffrey Maynard, Ruben Van Hooidonk, C. Mark Eakin, Marjetta Puotinen, Melissa Garren, et al.. Projections of climate conditions that increase coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance and virulence. Nature Climate Change, Nature Publishing Group, 2015, pp.ePUB. 〈10.1038/nclimate2625〉. 〈hal-01162335〉

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